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Measures of Current Economic Activity and Economic Outlook Point to Devastating Impact on Russia
| Our team of experts,using private Russian language and direct data sources including high frequency consumer data,cross-channel checks,releases from Russia’s international trade partners,and data mining of complex shipping data,have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion. From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy.
| Russian commodity exports is far more important to russia than rest of the world. Russia’s total export earnings consist overwhelmingly of revenue derived from commodities and raw materials; these export earnings make up well over half of Russia’s total government budget in most years – and presumably an even larger proportion now.
Energy revenue represents 60% of total russian government revenue.
| Europe has long been the destination of choice for Russian commodity exports, particularly energy exports, though once again, these energy exports are far more important to Russia than they are to
Europe.
Prior to the war europe imported 46% of its gas from russia, whereas russia is exporting a whopping 83% of its gas to europe.
| Europe’s challenges are legitimate; it cannot fully replace Russian energy in the short-term without painfully reducing energy consumption as a transitory measure, particularly in Germany, Poland, and Hungary.
Yet there is some irony that although Europe has understandably cried foul at Russia’s politically motivated attempt to weaponize energy, particularly gas, the Russian economy is hurt the most by shifting natural gas supply chains.
| To mitigate lost European transports of gas, in a speech in the days following the invasion, Pitler doubled down on a much-
ballyhooed “povorot na vostok”, or “pivot to the east”, declaring “[Russia] must
diversify exports, namely by building anew pipeline network to asia, which contains a fraction of the capacity of the European pipeline network; and even long-planned Asian pipeline projects currently under construction are still years away from becoming operational.
| The 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas exported by Russia to China last year represented less than 10% of the 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas sent by Russia to the European market. Financing of these costly gas pipeline projects also now puts Russia at a significant disadvantage.
| Russian gas giant Gazprom has already taken the unprecedented step of suspending dividends, the first time in thirty years, and its stock is the single worst performing major stock on the Moscow Stock Exchange since the invasion.
| The russian upstream industry has long been reliant on western technology, which combined with the loss of both Russia’s erstwhile primary market and Russia’s diminished economic clout, leads to even the Russian Energy Ministry revising their projections of long-term oil output downward.
Since the start of the sanctions against russia, China has indeed been buying more russian oil – But with a $35 discount per barrel.
| Russia remains a relatively high-cost producer relative to the other major oil producers – i.e. Saudi Arabia and the United States – and thus any margin pressure will be felt keenly by russia.
Even on imports, Russia needs its trade partners far more than its partners need Russia.
Given the extremely minor proportion of Chinese exports going to Russia vis-à-vis China’s trading relationship with the United States and Europe, ...
| ...clearly most Chinese companies are much more wary of losing access to US and European markets by running afoul of US sanctions and crossing US companies than they are of losing whatever erstwhile market share they had in Russia. China is the most prominent example, but other trade partners have been just as reticent to export to Russia.
| In fact, it appears that exports to Russia from sanctioning and non-sanctioning countries have collapsed at a roughly comparable rate in the months following the invasion.
https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fyale.box.com%2Fs%2F7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo
| So, my question to all you pro-ruskis out there, how can you support this self-destructive catastrophy of your motherland? Do you have zero self-preservation or what?
| HAHAHAHAHA!!!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/30/business/economy/russia-trade-ukraine-war.html
I can't believe that there is still so retard people!
| >>929580
Even your own link claims that the russian economy is gonna be bleak in the future, you dumb fuck.
Did you actually bother to read it yourself, or did you read it but didn't understand it? Protip: Scroll down to the bottom.
| We now have 2 independet studies who both point towards the same outcome. Thanks for helping, I guess.
these guy's are so fucking dumb
| >>929758
> maybe in the future Russia will fail
Sure, I've heard this so many times, since 2008 I guess. But Russia still stand.
My Lord, why ukrobots are so bloody stupid!?
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| A simplified overview of the catastrophy that is the modern day russian economy, written in such a way that even the "cognitive-impaired" can understand it. No prior education needed.